The U.S. inventory market may change into a “minefield” this upcoming earnings season as corporations start to really feel the warmth from slowing economies across the globe, warns Peter Boockvar, chief funding officer at Bleakley Monetary Group.
“Earnings, I think, are going to be that minefield,” he mentioned Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “You’re going to have some companies that deliver and they’re going to get rewarded, but if you’re a big multinational company that has exposure in Asia and Europe and Latin America and certainly in the U.S., it’s going to be hard to manage this.”
Briefly, corporations “better come through” regardless of slowing income progress and receding revenue margins in the event that they hope to resist the widespread ache, the market watcher mentioned.
And, thus far, it isn’t trying good. Though earnings season unofficially begins when the massive banks begin to report their outcomes on Oct. 15, current stories from cruise line firm Carnival and supply large FedEx have come up as crimson flags, Boockvar mentioned.
“While [Carnival executives] did cite a stronger dollar [and] higher oil prices” as causes for the ache, “they also talked about softness in Europe and Asia,” Boockvar mentioned. “We saw FedEx a couple weeks ago, and while some of FedEx’s issues are company-specific, I think it’s a great bellwether for its … supply chains around the world, and what they say about the macro environment I think is very important.”
Sadly, Boockvar — who really helpful gold, silver and worth shares to traders seeking to keep afloat — did not see a lot reprieve forward for even home corporations.
“They’re not going to be immune. If you’re a restaurant company that’s focused in the U.S. but you have restaurants that are near manufacturing facilities or transportation facilities, you’re going to still feel the impact,” he mentioned. “While maybe they do better than some of the multinationals because U.S. growth is better than what we’re seeing overseas, they’re certainly not immune, and I do think they’re now beginning to get impacted.”
Worse but, what many traders see as a “Fed put” — the flexibility of the Fed to cushion markets with financial coverage ought to they see a sustained decline — is not as sure as they could suppose, Boockvar mentioned.
“I think the reason why the S&P is around 3,000 is because people still think that it’s somehow embedded in the market,” he mentioned. “But … understand that when you are in an already very low-rate environment, further easing by your central bank is not going to stimulate any more growth, as we’re seeing in Japan and Europe. … I just happen to think that people are going to wake up one day and realize that that put is not effective anymore.”
The one piece of respectable information? Boockvar does not see traders’ shift from progress shares to worth names ending anytime quickly.
“This growth-to-value shift is not just a one- or two-week thing,” he mentioned. “I do think that this is a change in the market’s attitude towards high valuations, and it really has started in the IPO market. It started with Lyft and then with Uber and then with WeWork and maybe today with Peloton, that there is a valuation rethink, therefore value stocks … that have already embedded very low expectations I think will outperform.”
Shares fell Friday after a supply informed CNBC that the Trump administration was contemplating pulling some or all U.S. investments out of China.