Heavy rainfall has been forecast for the South Peninsula and adjoining areas over the subsequent three to 4 days even as the monsoon withdrawal stays at yesterday’s (Wednesday’s) alignment.

India Met Department (IMD) had declared that the South-West monsoon had began exiting from elements of the North-West after a surplus run delivering 10 per cent extra rain from June to September.

Favourable circumstances

Conditions have gotten beneficial for its withdrawal from extra elements of the North-West India through the subsequent two days and from its remaining elements as effectively as from adjoining Central India within the subsequent three days.

Simultaneously, the stage is being set for the arrival of the retreating monsoon (North-East monsoon) over the South Peninsula, with calibrated escalation in rainfall over the area through the subsequent few days.

Scattered to pretty widespread rainfall with remoted heavy falls is forecast for Peninsular India till tomorrow (Friday) even as thunderstorms and lightning might hit East and Peninsular India for two days.

Specifically for right this moment (Thursday), the IMD sees the potential of heavy rainfall for Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala.

Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning, which marks the chaotic climate related to monsoon transition would play out over giant elements of East and Peninsular India on Thursday.

Areas seemingly getting hit on Thursday are Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bengal, Sikkim, Odisha, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala.

Anticyclone in Bay

Wind-field projections by the IMD signifies {that a} cyclonic circulation would possibly get some traction over the South-East Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast over the subsequent few days however might not fairly go the gap to intensify.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service stated it’d simply give you the chance to intensify a spherical and transfer away from the coast into the outer seas, however with out touching off motion within the Bay of Bengal.

A suitably positioned anticyclone with a band of easterlies to its southern semicircle would have been ultimate, however the IMD sees twin anticyclones creating within the Bay ruling out this chance for the second.

Some semblance of order can be restored within the bigger Bay of Bengal basin in the direction of May 19 and 20 however the flows over Peninsular India and the Arabian Sea might not oblige nonetheless.

The US National Centres for Environment Prediction sees heavy rain alongside the West Coast from West Maharashtra down to Kerala through the week ending October 17, with core exercise positioned round Sri Lanka .

Almost an analogous forecast is proven to be legitimate throughout October 17 to 25, when the primary organised climate system from the South-East Bay of Bengal might have an effect on Peninsular India by way of Sri Lanka and the Gulf of Mannar.

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